Bloggers Let Poll Cat Out of the Bag

Criticisms aside, bloggers seemed to win the popularity contest. "The popularity of Internet political sites had built in the months leading up to the election -- political bloggers who had once received a few hundred hits per day reported hundreds of thousands of visitors. The surge of popularity was clear from the strains on the relatively new technology: Some of the one-person-show blogs seemed like they were having technical problems more often than they were running smoothly," wrote Peter Hartlaub of the San Francisco Chronicle. "As the outcome of the election became more clear, it was once again the Internet sources that made the first move, calling individual states and the entire election long before their televised competitors."

Despite traffic surges and server glitches, the blogs got this standing ovation from Mike Wendland of the Detroit Free Press for making a dent in the political reporting process: "Say whatever you want about this presidential campaign setting new highs in low blows. For the Internet, this was a true coming of age as a forceful mass medium. The fact that the Internet was probably responsible for as much of the bias and bitterness in this year's campaigns as the traditional big media that it delights in castigating is another matter. One thing that we can be sure will be remembered about this campaign is that it was the year of the blogs -- Web logs, or online journals and diaries kept by so-called citizen journalists, sometimes dubbed 'pajama people' because so many write from home during off hours."
• The San Francisco Chronicle: Web Sites Provide Alternative to Wary TV Coverage
• The Detroit Free Press: A Swirl of Spins in the Blogosphere

From the Mouths of Blogs

So what exactly did the bloggers say that set off such a firestorm? After posting a list of early poll numbers, under the heading "A Little Birdie Told Us," Ana Marie Cox wrote: "I have been asked to clarify: The little birdie is not Joe Trippi nor anyone he works with. In fact, the little birdie is really skittish and not exactly trustworthy in all cases. Please vote, even if you live in PA. These could be total forgeries, designed to keep you from voting. As a friend put it, 'The Yankees always figure out a way to win.'"

Josh Marshall wrote in a 5:09 p.m. ET post, after linking to Mark Blumenthal's MysteryPollster at 12:46 p.m. to further explain exit poll numbers: "Well, if our servers had to go down, I'm at least glad it could happen today, right? Jeez, what friggin' nightmare. As you may have noticed TPM was offline from about 1:45 PM until just before 5 PM. Right about exactly the time I got hold of the first good exit poll numbers everything started to go haywire. It's still not completely clear what happened. But we seem to have it under control." Oh, to be famous.

Writer Andrew Sullivan on his Daily Dish blog did a little backpedaling at 12:30 p.m. on some earlier posts of exit poll numbers. "Those numbers I posted, as I wrote at the time, may well not hold up throughout the day. A few look way off to me, as I wrote. But few GOP bigwigs are disputing that the early exit numbers are not encouraging for Bush. Oh, and whomever you're voting for, for Pete's sake, don't be put off by exit polls. As I said earlier, they are not accounting for early voting, and some seem to have a heavy female bias. They are a blur of a blur. So stay tuned. And vote."

Early poll poster and Daily Kos blogger Markos Moulitsas hedged his own bets by writing at one point yesterday after a list of exit poll numbers: "In 2000, the early numbers favored Bush. In 2002, exit polling was terribly innacurate. Exit polling also doesn't account for absentee and early ballots. And it's still early in the day. PA and MN will be much closer than these number indicate. So please, please take with a giant grain of sand."

The Houston Chronicle explained of the blog posts that "caution was thrown to the wind on the Internet, where bloggers released results of exit polls throughout the day and night. How or whether the publishing of poll results affected Tuesday's vote was impossible to determine, but sites such as wonkette.com and slate.com were unapologetic in publishing the same raw data available to the networks. Slate.com, for example, noted that the consortium subscribing to the National Election Pool, which conducts the polls, has 'signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes ... but the numbers always leak out to other journalists, such as the writers at Slate.' 'Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them,' read a posting."
• The Houston Chronicle: Networks Cautious as Bloggers Risk It

Market Impact

The Wall Street Journal's piece on blogs noted that the markets reacted to the early postings. "The most popular blogs rarely attract more than 100,000 visits a day, a sliver of what broadcast networks draw. Still, they appeared to have an clear impact yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began falling almost immediately after several sites posted initial data indicating a possible win for Sen. Kerry. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 18.66, or 0.19 percent, to 10,035.73. Perhaps more significantly, the blogs seem likely to have a significant impact on the way the traditional media cover future elections, since their willingness to post the early data could put network and cable television under mounting pressure to follow suit as a way of staying relevant. The blogs' willingness to use exit data angered some network executives."

Reuters said, "U.S. stocks reversed course suddenly on Tuesday and drifted lower as chatter on the Internet speculated that early exit polls had Sen. John Kerry leading the presidential election in key swing states." CBS MarketWatch.com reported on the market sell-off, which was sparked by early poll numbers being leaked. "U.S. stocks staged a late-day sell-off Tuesday, with blue chips snapping a five-session winning streak to end lower and the Nasdaq paring gains amid reports that Sen. John Kerry is putting in a strong early showing at the polls," the news outlet said. "The Nasdaq Composite edged up 4.92 points to 1,984.79, ending at a four-month high but off its best levels for the session when it reached the 2,000 mark for the first time since July 2. The S&P 500 Index ended fractionally higher, up 0.07 points at 1,130.58. Stocks pulled back as online sources leaked unconfirmed raw data from early exit polls."
• Reuters: Blogs Send Stocks Into Reverse
• CBS MarketWatch.com: Stocks Spooked by Early Election Call
• The Los Angeles Times: Sell-Off Blamed on Early Signs of Kerry Lead (Registration required)

Filter is designed for hard-core techies, news junkies and technology professionals alike. Have suggestions, cool links or interesting tales to share? Send your tips and feedback to cindyDOTwebbATwashingtonpost.com.